The State and Future of the Live Music Industry
Nashville International Airport sends out this notification email they cutely refer to as an “Aireport.” The one from mid-June warned of excessive security line delays as hordes of attendees from two major music events in and around the city began heading home. What it didn’t reveal was the very different experiences those two events had. The CMA Fest, formerly Fan Fair, set a new benchmark, averaging 88,500 fans per day for the five-day event. About 65 miles away, however, attendance the Bonnaroo festival was “slightly less” than the average of 80,000 that bought tickets for the last two years.
CMA Fest does do good numbers consistently, though much of the four-day show also takes places at free venues around the city, which certainly helps bulk up the numbers. But Bonnaroo has slid for the past two years, with 2015’s attendance estimated at slightly above 80,000, down from 2014’s 90,000-plus.
Other festivals are also seeing attendance and dollar declines, most notably Miami’s Ultra Music Festival. That big EDM event was up slightly this year versus last, at 170,000 versus 165,000, respectively, but well below the peak of 330,000 in 2013. [The move to two weekends in 2013, then back to one, also factors into the attendance spike in 2013 and subsequent attendance decline.]
If stiff opposition from city officials undoubtedly played a role in pushing the two-weekend UMF back to a one-weekend event — some had lobbied to cancel the thing completely — others have noted that Miami’s club scene appears to be in decline, with recent closures of top clubs including South Beach’s Cameo and downtown’s Grand Central.
Beyond South Florida, other festivals have been mired with a loss of momentum this year. The 2016 edition of the TomorrowWorld festival in Georgia, one of SFX’s flagship events, was canceled after thousands of concertgoers were left stranded in mud and rain at the event in September 2015.
We’re Good, But… It’s Complicated
Live music is not in trouble, however — not by a long shot. Live Nation, the biggest barometer of the sector’s health and promoter for 21 of the top 25 global tours in 2016 including Beyoncé, Coldplay, Guns N’ Roses, Rihanna and Drake, reported ticket sales for shows in the first quarter of this year pacing 10 percent ahead of last year, with over 35 million tickets during those three months. Meanwhile, small venues continue to proliferate — numerous AV systems integrators have told me they don’t work on a boutique hotel that doesn’t have at least one stage built into a lobby or pool deck anymore.
But the imminent fade of a generation of classic rock acts that were usually no-brainers for filling theaters and the occasional shed is a dark cloud on the horizon, and there’s not a lot beneath that thin, wealthy veneer of top acts to replace it. Even Live Nation sees that the middle is getting soft, which is why they’re putting ever-greater emphasis on VIP and other specialty-ticket packages. It’s no longer enough to see and hear Taylor Swift or Drake — you’ve got to meet and greet them, too, to make the numbers work.
It all points to a much larger trend in the culture away from things and towards experiences. That seems to be the consensus of what the aging current (boomers) and aspirational next generation (millennials) of music consumers want, the former because they can afford it and the latter because ownership is so 2005.
As Advertising Age puts it, “…Millennials eschew luxury goods… and they’re a lot more willing to shell out money on experiences that enhance their lives (and their Instagram and Snapchat feeds) rather than on material things.” And, the analysis goes on to point out, that cohort’s habits are rubbing off on the Gen-X and boomer generations that preceded them. Another lifestyle report projects that over the next five years, total spending will grow by nearly 22 percent in so-called “non-essential” categories, with experiences like vacations and dining out expected to see the greatest gains. Live music has to figure out how to remain a part of that.
Get On Board
To some extent, it already has. We’ve had entire cruise ships dedicated to rock, country and other musical genres for over a decade. Rock camps (which are another form of live music) can cost into five figures to spend a few days near the oxygen tank of your favorite classic rocker. And, of course there are the aforementioned VIP meet-and-greets. The latter have gotten pretty elaborate and expensive in recent years — Demi Lovato alone is at $6,000; add Nick Jonas, and you’re at an even $10K for the pair.
This is part of a somewhat nebulous phenomenon, championed by happiness researcher and Cornell psychology professor Thomas Gilovich, which posits that experiences bring people more happiness than do possessions. But it’s also the underpinning of a growing transactional tidal wave. We’ve already looked at how live music has been participating in this; now, we have to figure out how to keep and grow live music’s market share of bliss.
Tech Suggestions
The tech sector already has suggestions. The latest iteration of Doppler Labs’ (hereplus.me) Here One active earbud system, introduced at SXSW, lets users tune the sound of live concerts they’re attending, changing things like the EQ in real time to suit their tastes and filtering out various sounds that they find distracting, like a squealing baby. They also let users add effects, such as reverb, echo and flanging. It’s no toy — Hans Zimmer and Tiesto are both investors. It joins several other software-based concepts intended to more deeply engage concertgoers and thus enhance the live-music experience. For instance, InConcert Ampd (ampdapp.com) lets concertgoers provide instant feedback — voting for their favorite band at the show or whom they want to see on next. Why not a version that provides input to the FOH mixer?
There will be more like that coming down the pike. Live music will remain a robust market, but the level of engagement has to increase, simply because there’s so much else competing with it. Adapting live music to become more of an experience than a commodity is going to take us down some unexpected pathways, no doubt. But it’s just one more aspect of an old model of the music business that’s going to have to change. Might as well start thinking about it now.
And it will likely be easier than the one that comes after that. (Hint: it will involve learning Mandarin).
Dan Daley is a noted journalist and bon vivant.
