In a recent 60 Minutes interview, President Obama admitted that the U.S. intelligence community had underestimated “ISIS” and what was taking place in Syria while — at the same time — overestimating the Iraqi army’s capability to combat the threat. A shocking admission but, then again, over- and under-estimations have shaped history for thousands of years, and sometimes it is not just a lack of foresight that attributes to a poor judgment call or policy. Official procedure, monetary concerns, various alliances and hubris are a few talking points that might lead to a poor assessment of any given situation.
In a 2004 testimony, Condoleezza Rice confirmed that the Bush administration underestimated the terrorist threat before the 911 attacks. It has also been reported that Al-Qaeda and Osama Bin Laden miscalculated the response and fury of America’s backlash after the attacks. In the years leading up to the attack at Pearl Harbor, the U.S. underestimated the Japanese air and naval power. Conversely, the Japanese misjudged the U.S. desire and resolve for an extended war effort.
The International Monetary Fund admits it underestimated the effect global austerity would have on the Greek economy, and the World Health Organization says they were late in sounding the alarm regarding the Ebola Virus. In 2008, the Federal Reserve was late to the table regarding the U.S. economic meltdown, but on the plus side, regulators in Colorado’s Department of Revenue have discovered that there is more money to be made selling marijuana than previously estimated. The cost of going to war in Iraq was underestimated — as was the amount of commitment required to complete the mission. On a less-recent historical page, the White Star Line, due to its inflated estimate regarding the durability of its ship, came up short in approximating the required number of lifeboats for the megaship Titanic.
Day-to-Day Examples
As proven time after time, the under- and over-estimations of any given situation can end up with a disastrous outcome, costing time, money and even lives. Of course, not all situations are as dire as the aforementioned scenarios, but even in lesser circumstances and everyday situations, the estimation we provide needs to be close to its mark.
I have previously written an article regarding the audio and event community and the lack of willingness to accept responsibility when things go wrong in INMF (It’s Not My Fault) instances. Unfortunately, despite the initial stage of denial and outrage during any given mishap, the burden of responsibility needs to fall on someone and — if that someone happens to be you, then the mantra becomes, “I should have known.”
Just to clarify, there is a definite difference between the estimation of an event and the execution of the same event. The estimation is an educated guess of requirements based upon an accumulation of knowledge from previous events of similar quality. The audio estimator should be experienced and well informed regarding whatever it is they are approximating and, if they lack the experience or foresight, it is a good likelihood that the end result will be punctuated by, “I should have known.”
The Value of a Good Crew
Sometimes the estimation might be correct if only the right people were involved, which brings me back to the point that the estimation and the execution of an event are separate entities. If the estimator and the crew chief are not one and the same, the estimator who is contracting the job needs to be very sure that the person hired to oversee the event is one that can be trusted to make it happen in a safe and timely fashion so that it doesn’t end with, “I should have known.”
It’s best not to dictate to a foreman, but rather converse and make sure that they are comfortable with your estimation of time, materials and labor. If there is any concern on behalf of the crew chief, then it might be prudent to change the order to assuage their apprehension or, if that is impossible, find a new crew chief who is comfortable implementing the estimate. In the end, it doesn’t matter if it’s the wrong man for the right job or the right man for the wrong job because — regardless of the configuration — you’ll still be humming the tune to “I should have known.”
The M-O-N-E-Y Factor
Money is often the mitigating factor when things end with “I should have known,” and it becomes a moot point as to whether it is the promoter who doesn’t have the money to do the job correctly or the contractor who underbids the job. If corners are cut, then quality and safety are compromised, resulting in a finished product of “I should have known.”
It’s a noble quality to be able to admit negligence, and it certainly garners more respect than pointing a finger at someone else and chanting “INMF,” but regardless of where the blame lies or who accepts responsibility, a bad situation reflects poorly on all involved parties. When giving an estimate for an event or show, do not be swayed by a client’s lack of money. It’s nice if a discount can be given and applied, but if a client can’t afford to do the event properly, then you can do one of two things. Give it away, or walk away.
You are the professional, and that means that you need to dictate what you need to ensure a good event. If you are accepting responsibility for the success of said event, then it is imperative that the client let you be in charge and do what needs to be done. Remind the client of the “Fast, Good and Cheap” rule and that, if they need to impose stipulations in regard to putting together the show, they can have two of the three, but not all three. Ask them which two of the three that they want and then devise a show according to their choices. Don’t skimp on safety, and even if they insist upon cutting back the equipment, try not to underbid your power requirements. For the most part, just assume that they do not know what they are asking for or what they really need. Remember that, in case something should go wrong and they — in all unlikeliness — happen to accept the blame, be very aware there is no more satisfaction to be gained from their mea culpa than there is to be gained from your “I should have known!”
