We are all hoping that the coming year is going to be better than the one that just passed and I am very much among those hoping. I mean, how long can it go on? And entertainment is more immune to downturns than other sectors of the economy, right?
A few things to keep in mind…
Scared companies continue to cut their marketing budgets while the smart and brave ones are increasing spending in order to maximize their advantage when things do turn around. A lesson for all of us is that when the economy is down, it is a bad time to stop marketing, and even-at the risk of sounding like a shill-advertising. It has been noted that before the Great Depression (the last one,) Post was the #1 cereal company in the country but they all but stopped advertising while a smaller competitor saw it as an opportunity to increase market share. More than a half century later, Kellogg Co. is battling for the top slot in the cereal aisle, but with General Mills, not Post.
I do believe that we will see some relief in 2010, but it may be slow in coming. Here is more food for thought. As anyone who has read FOH for any length of time knows, I still play out from time to time as a pressure relief, and because I just love to play music. We were contacted about a New Year's Eve gig that looked solid enough for us to start to staff it (I had to use some different players because the show was sponsored by the local wannabe jazz station, and that meant getting some jazzers aboard). After a week of waiting for an answer, we were told the entire event had been cancelled. Right now there is not a lot going on in Vegas for NYE, despite the fact that it is a four-day weekend. But here is the scary part. The people we were calling for the gig were all A-list guys who, one would expect, had been booked for holiday stuff including NYE since at least October. But we made about 10 calls, and of those 10, how many of these in-demand players were already booked?
One.
It's kind of a mixed message. On one hand, if musicians are not working, that means there are fewer shows, and fewer shows mean less work for soundcos, especially for small and mid-sized companies. On the other hand I just interviewed a soundco owner who is in the middle of a very busy season and has 22 shows over a 10-day period. Like I said, I do expect to see it get better in 2010, but don't expect a flood of orders to start on Jan. 1.
A final thought. The biggest and most talked about show of the year was-hands down-the live streaming over YouTube of the U2 show in Pasadena, Calif. Does this mean that in the future we will all sit around the screen to catch a live show?
I don't think so. In fact, I think that the people most drawn to streaming shows are going to be those who don't go to live shows anyway. There is a vibe to a live show that just can't be streamed. But it does mean that there is more technology for us to stay on top of if we want to stay competitive. I am willing to bet that in the next 12 months the majority of soundco owners reading this will be asked to provide audio or video streaming services for at least one show. We better start learning now.
The bottom line is that we'll make it. If there is one thing the live production biz does well, it is to adapt and survive.
